Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACT New Developmentalism has focused its attention on trade problems created, to a large measure, by the divergences between the exchange rate that keeps the current account of the balance of payments balanced and what it calls industrial equilibrium exchange rate, the rate that would preserve the competitiveness of manufacturing firms operating at the state-or-art frontier. ND acknowledges that these rates may be disturbed by financial flows, but the role of capital account movements may be underestimated. The paper argues that financial flows have indeed been underestimated, which may make more difficult to devise efficacious policies to correct the problem of currency overvaluation.

ABSTRACT The crisis initiated in the United States in 2007, and spread worldwide in 2008, has been compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s. They have in common a deep fall in the level of activity (although in the 2010s government intervention was able to contain the fall before it could reach the dimensions of the 1930s), followed by a period where recovery is uncertain and fragile, as has been the case both in the US and in Western Europe. The paper outlines a theory of depression that comprises both aspects. The theory draws on the theoretical contributions of Keynes, Fisher, Minsky and Leijonhufvud, proposing that the concept of "corridor of stability" may help to explain how an initial adverse aggregate shock may lead to a contractionary spiral, where debt deflation is main mechanism to explain the downward movement of the economy and why one should expect a period of weak and volatile recovery to follow it.

Este artigo examina o processo eleitoral de 2006, que culminou na reeleição do presidente Lula. Argumenta-se que o período foi marcado pelo voto de advertência de eleitores insatisfeitos com o primeiro mandato e por erros de estratégia do PSDB, a começar pela escolha do candidato. Sustenta-se ainda que a falência ética do Partido dos Trabalhadores ensejou uma onda de preconceito inédita na história política brasileira.

A contribution to the debate on the efficacy of monetary policy and some implications in the case of Brazil. The main opposition between Keynesian and Classic monetary theories is defined by the former's proposition of money non-neutrality in the long period. According to Keynes, it is not possible to describe a monetary economy's long period position without first specifying the monetary policy it is adopting. The policy is described by the choice of the short-term interest rate which exerts an important determining influence on the long term rate and, therefore, on real investment decisions. Based on this reasoning, inflation target monetary policy regimes are criticized, in particular the one adopted in post-1999 balance of payments crisis Brazil because of its deleterious impact on investment and growth. (Rev Econ Polit/GIGA)

ABSTRACT The IMF was created right after World War II to manage an international payments system based on fixed exchange rates. In its early years the Fund's remedy to balance-of-payments crises consisted in reducing domestic aggregate demand. As a result, its policies were seen as recessive. With the collapse of the fixed exchange rates system in the early 70s, the Fund lost its clients in the developed world and turned to developing countries. In the Fund's approach, developing countries suffered crises not because of temporary maladjustments between aggregate supply and demand but because of structural problems. Accordingly, the Fund began to impose structural reforms as conditionalities for its loans, curbing the autonomy of developing countries to adopt the policies they would see as favorable to growth.

ABSTRACT A new wave of conservative thinking in economic theory and policy, which emerged in the mid-1970s, made the dominance of Keynesian views among macroeconomists its priority target. This wave takes various forms, but all have in common the critique of the interventionist ideas commonly attributed to Keynes or his followers. There is no doubt that Keynesianism, in all its incarnations, has a strong interventionist component. This work examines the fundamentals of this interventionist bias in Keynes' original work, exploring works little explored or known as those produced during the Second World War, in which that author served as a high advisor to the English government.

RESUMO A sabedoria convencional ortodoxa relacionada à política monetária na década de 1990 apresenta a independência dos bancos centrais como condição para alcançar estabilidade de preços durável, como fez com relação à adoção de regras fixas para o crescimento monetário na década de 1980. O artigo procede a uma análise crítica dos argumentos, nos quais se conclui que, além das implicações políticas indesejáveis da proposta, a tese depende muito de conceitos ilusórios e frágeis, como a taxa natural de desemprego e o viés inflacionário supostamente inerente à proposta. Autoridades monetárias, bem como numa visão muito restrita do papel das autoridades monetárias.

O artigo discute o problema da estabilizacao em economias de "alta inflacao", termo cunhado para caracterizar a situacao vivida especialmente por economias latino-americanas na ultima decada. Para o autor, o debate recente sobre estabilizacao, ao privilegiar o estabelecimento de uma ancora para os precos, desprezou a funcao de sinalizadores de precos que podia ser cumprida pelas politicas de rendas, utilizadas com sucesso em varios paises. (Novos Estud CEBRAP/DÜI)